Where will DIY Animation Be in 30 Years?

Gj

I'm trying to imagine what DYI (one person one machine) will look like in 30 years. It's pretty obvious that real-time DYI animation will become as high quality as fully-rendered animation is today and that fully-rendered DYI animation will be indistinguishable from live filming.

I also think it's likely that pipelines will become simpler and that the barriers between video editing and animation will become ever more fuzzy than they are today. Motion capture will move into expression capture. Amateur "video-taping" will automatically default to generating 3d animatable/customizable models rather than 2D flat images.

I think it's also possible that future tools will help with storytelling, perhaps automatically generating the effects, camera angles, lighting, etc. based upon a standardized way of telling a typical story. In other words, the program could analyze previous films and default to the type of shots in the originals.

Anyway, I'm interested in what the other people on this forum think, because no doubt many of you have a much better grasp of where this is going than I could possibly have.

ZarconDeeGrissom

Predicting the future is always tricky at best, and can lead to dangerous decisions if mishandled. Inventions are driven by the needs of the moment more then the desire to advance any specific technology. Thus you are asking if we can predict the needs of society in the future, before we are there to contemplate where we have been. Just think of what movies thought we would have by the year 2001, some of it is here, and other stuff is not ready for commercial use yet, if it is feasible at all.

Many thought that the cellphone camera would render the 35mm cameras obsolete, yet the 35mm format persists to this day. It is a “Classic” and people like classics.

The other side of that is what the military wants to do with 3D whatever from there magic stuff flying overhead in space. Some advancements in 3D may end up as seen as a threat to some, so it is not an easy topic to predict at all.

I suspect that in thirty years, people will still go to art museums, and enjoy hand painted masterpieces still brushed onto cloth canvasses. I will not venture how many of the “Art Galleries” will also host 3D rendered content, or what will have a bigger following.

When you have reached the end of the road, then you can decide whether to go to the left or to the right, to fire or to water. If you make those decisions before you have even set foot upon the road, it will take you nowhere. Except to a bad end. - Galen